Peak Oil, The non evidence

Artificial Scarcity, Black Gold? The question of Gold Digital or Physical? He who has the gold makes the rules.Polishing the Golden Turd #TurdsAllTheWay Down

Polishing the Golden Turd #TurdsAllTheWay Down , Click of Image

Turds All the Way Down Post

May 1, 2020

The Turd in the Punchbowl, the Oriboris, and #CovidPurpose.Its Turds all the way down. or The Pretensions and perversions of various Cock Suckers. @WIKI_BALLOT #4PAMPHLETEERS @GRUBSTREETJORNO @WIKI_BALLOT @FINANCIALEYES @JOEBLOB20

OriBoris. , an onanistic Polititian famous for self serving acrobatics.

Q. world shale oil production, heavy oil production and light oil production graph since 1970

I understand. Let me provide a detailed analysis of the graph with proper citations:

1. **Shale Oil Production**:

- Started becoming significant around 2000 with minimal production (<1 mb/d)

- Experienced dramatic growth post-2010, reaching about 8 mb/d by 2020

- By 2023, shale oil production reached approximately 9 mb/d, with the US accounting for about 8.32 mb/d [4]

2. **Heavy Oil Production**:

- Maintained steady growth from around 2 mb/d in 1970

- Reached approximately 4 mb/d by 1990

- Current production is around 8 mb/d, with significant contributions from countries like Canada and Venezuela [3]

3. **Light Conventional Oil**:

- Has been the dominant source of oil production

- Grew from about 45 mb/d in 1970 to around 65 mb/d by 2000

- Current production is approximately 70 mb/d [1]

Key Observations:

- Light conventional oil remains the primary source of global oil production

- Shale oil has shown the most dramatic growth rate since 2010 [2]

- Heavy oil production has shown steady but slower growth compared to shale oil [3]

Note: The data presented is based on multiple sources and represents approximate values due to varying reporting methods and classifications across different agencies. The graph combines data from the EIA, IEA, and other international energy organizations to provide a comprehensive view of global oil production trends.

q. Give a weighted average cost for production of world oil supply across the 3 types of oil and use this as a proxy for energy returned on energy invested showing if the average copst of producing a barrell of oil has declined in real terms sincce 1970

Based on this analysis, here are the key findings regarding the weighted average cost of global oil production since 1970:

1. **Overall Cost Trend**:

- The weighted average cost has actually decreased by 12.7% from 1970 to 2023

- Starting index in 1970: 109.00

- Ending index in 2023: 95.19

2. **Major Factors Affecting Costs**:

a) **Technological Improvements**:

- Annual efficiency gains of approximately 1.5%

- More pronounced in shale oil (1.5x the improvement rate)

- Automation and improved drilling techniques

- Better reservoir management

- Enhanced recovery methods

b) **Increasing Complexity**:

- Annual increase of about 1% due to:

- Deeper wells

- More challenging reservoirs

- Offshore and remote locations

- More complex extraction methods

c) **Historical Events Impact**:

- 1973-74 Oil Crisis: 30% cost increase

- 1979-80 Second Oil Crisis: 25% cost increase

- 2004-08 Pre-financial crisis: 20% cost increase

- 2014-16 Oil price crash: 20% cost reduction

- 2020 COVID-19: 30% temporary cost reduction

3. **Production Mix Evolution**:

- 1970: Dominated by conventional light oil (~85%)

- 2023: More diversified mix

- Light oil: ~65%

- Heavy oil: ~20%

- Shale oil: ~15%

4. **EROI Implications**:

- The declining weighted average cost suggests an improving EROI when considering technological efficiencies

- However, this doesn't tell the full story because:

- Environmental costs are not fully captured

- Quality of resources has declined

- Energy intensity of extraction has increased

- Supporting infrastructure costs have grown

5. **Key Observations**:

- Technology has largely offset the natural tendency for costs to rise as easy-to-access oil is depleted

- The shift to more expensive sources (shale, heavy oil) has been partially compensated by efficiency gains

- The industry has shown remarkable ability to reduce costs through innovation

- The real cost of production has become more volatile since 2000

This analysis suggests that while the oil industry has managed to keep production costs relatively stable or even declining in real terms, this has required increasingly complex and energy-intensive extraction methods. The declining weighted average cost masks the fact that we're using more sophisticated and energy-intensive methods to extract oil from more challenging reservoirs.

It's important to note that this is a simplified model and actual EROI calculations would need to consider many additional factors, including:

- Full lifecycle energy costs

- Environmental remediation costs

- Infrastructure requirements

- Quality differentials between oil types

- Regional variations in production efficiency

“Money” YOU SAY #ARYANS I SAY #ARIANS, Inflation, Cui Bono Who Benefits? Tim Morgans Seeds Falsified? #239: Life after liberalism? THE CESSATION OF GROWTH CHANGES EVERYTHING https://open.substack.com/pub/grubstreetinexile/p/tim-morgans-seeds-falsified-peak?r=l1oox&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

Tim Morgans blog is a stylised conclusion searching for a theory with no empirical evidence. My comments are always filtered out at his Blog. I tried to comment last week again to no avail.

https://grubstreetinexile.substack.com/p/money-you-say-aryans-i-say-arians

What I am getting at is that at best you are in making the claims you do for ECOE that they are Stylised and such not fit for policy prescriptions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_oil_and_gas_fields
Giant field production properties and behavior
Comprehensive analysis of the production from the majority of the world’s giant oil fields has shown their enormous importance for global oil production.[10] For instance, the 20 largest oil fields in the world alone account for roughly 25% of the total oil production.

Further analysis shows that giant oil fields typically reach their maximum production before 50% of the ultimate recoverable volume has been extracted.[11] A strong correlation between depletion and the rate of decline was also found in that study, indicating that much new technology has only been able to temporarily decrease depletion at the expense of rapid future decline. This is exactly the case in the Cantarell Field.

EROEI and ECOE The theory and Maurice Adelman the Empirical Evidence.SEEDS of Doubt, Do the facts don’t fit the theory?

Author:rogerglewis Published Date:February 23, 2022

Altarwise By Owl-Light

Altarwise by owl-light in the half-way house
The gentleman lay graveward with his furies;
Abaddon in the hangnail cracked from Adam,
And, from his fork, a dog among the fairies,
The atlas-eater with a jaw for news,
Bit out the mandrake with to-morrows scream.
Then, penny-eyed, that gentlemen of wounds,
Old cock from nowheres and the heaven's egg,
With bones unbuttoned to the half-way winds,
Hatched from the windy salvage on one leg,
Scraped at my cradle in a walking word
That night of time under the Christward shelter:
I am the long world's gentlemen, he said,
And share my bed with Capricorn and Cancer.

Death is all metaphors, shape in one history;
The child that sucketh long is shooting up,
The planet-ducted pelican of circles
Weans on an artery the genders strip;
Child of the short spark in a shapeless country
Soon sets alight a long stick from the cradle;
The horizontal cross-bones of Abaddon,
You by the cavern over the black stairs,
Rung bone and blade, the verticals of Adam,
And, manned by midnight, Jacob to the stars.
Hairs of your head, then said the hollow agent,
Are but the roots of nettles and feathers
Over the groundwork's thrusting through a pavement
And hemlock-headed in the wood of weathers.

First there was the lamb on knocking knees
And three dead seasons on a climbing grave
That Adam's wether in the flock of horns,
Butt of the tree-tailed worm that mounted Eve,
Horned down with skullfoot and the skull of toes
On thunderous pavements in the garden of time;
Rip of the vaults, I took my marrow-ladle
Out of the wrinkled undertaker's van,
And, Rip Van Winkle from a timeless cradle,
Dipped me breast-deep in the descending bone;
The black ram, shuffling of the year, old winter,
Alone alive among his mutton fold,
We rung our weathering changes on the ladder,
Said the antipodes, and twice spring chimed.

What is the metre of the dictionary?
The size of genesis? the short spark's gender?
Shade without shape? the shape of the Pharaohs echo?
(My shape of age nagging the wounded whisper.)
Which sixth of wind blew out the burning gentry?
(Questions are hunchbacks to the poker marrow.)
What of a bamboo man among your acres?
Corset the boneyards for a crooked boy?
Button your bodice on a hump of splinters,
My camel's eyes will needle through the shroud.
Loves reflection of the mushroom features,
Still snapped by night in the bread-sided field,
Once close-up smiling in the wall of pictures,
Arc-lamped thrown back upon the cutting flood.

Dylan Thomas

Evaluate a devaluation of the petro Doallr by 30% and calculate the value of US Tarrifs as a proprtionate increase in Import Prices to offset the value of the dollar devaluation. Consider then a US dollar reserve currency based on Bitcoin Prices and Gold to reset the dollar at a BTC /Gold standard and calculate the dominance of the US Dollar based upon a Gold Backed dollar as reserve currency

MonicaSonnet

I'll help you analyze this complex monetary scenario step by step.

1. Petro Dollar Devaluation Analysis

Let's calculate the effects of a 30% devaluation:

• Original value: 1.00 USD

• After 30% devaluation: 0.70 USD

2. Tariff Calculation to Offset Devaluation

To offset a 30% currency devaluation, the tariff rate would need to be approximately 42.86% to restore the original purchasing power:

TariffRate=10.70−1=0.4286 or 42.86%TariffRate=0.701​−1=0.4286 or 42.86%

This is because:

• If original price = $100

• After 30% devaluation = $70

• To get back to $100: $70 × (1 + 0.4286) = $100

3. Bitcoin/Gold Standard Analysis

Let me fetch current market data for this analysis:

MonicaSonnet

Powered By

Monica Search

Searching: current bitcoin price and gold price per ounce 2024

Based on 10 search sources

Let me restructure the analysis with multiple citations and gather more data:

Monica Search

Searching: us dollar global reserve currency percentage share 2024

Let me provide a comprehensive analysis with proper citations:

1. Current Market Status

• Gold Price: Approximately $3,052.75 per ounce 4

• Current US Dollar Reserve Status: 57.39% of global foreign exchange reserves 1

• The dollar's dominance has declined from over 70% in 2000 to current levels 4

2. Petro Dollar Devaluation Impact (30%)

• Original value: 1.00 USD

• Post-devaluation value: 0.70 USD

• This would significantly impact the current 57.39% reserve currency status 1

• Would likely accelerate the ongoing trend of dollar reserve share reduction, which has been gradually declining 2

3. Tariff Calculation Required tariff to offset 30% devaluation: TariffRate=10.70−1=0.4286 or 42.86%TariffRate=0.701​−1=0.4286 or 42.86%

4. Gold/Bitcoin Standard Analysis Current market structure:

• Gold maintains traditional safe-haven status at $3,052.75/oz 4

• Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio: approximately 27.66 ounces of gold per Bitcoin 2

• This creates a natural price discovery mechanism for a potential new standard

5. Reserve Currency Implications

• Current system: USD represents 57.39% of global reserves 1

• Euro holds 20.02% of global reserves 1

• Chinese renminbi is gaining market share, matching about 25% of the dollar's decline 2

• Non-reporting economies represent only 7% of global FX reserves 2

6. Proposed Gold-Bitcoin Standard Impact A new reserve system based on both Gold and Bitcoin would:

• Provide a dual-anchor system for stability

• Potentially reduce current reserve concentration risk

• Create a more diversified reserve currency system, addressing the current trend of declining dollar dominance 4

7. Market Implications

• The transition would affect the current 93% of global FX reserves that are reported 2

• Would need to account for the euro's significant 20.02% market share 1

• Could accelerate the ongoing de-dollarization trend seen since 2000 4

This analysis shows that while a 30% devaluation would require significant tariff adjustments, a transition to a Gold-Bitcoin standard could potentially provide a more stable foundation for the global reserve currency system, though it would require careful implementation given the current complex market structure.

Is this what the Tarrifs are all about?