“Money” YOU SAY #ARYANS I SAY #ARIANS, Inflation, Cui Bono Who Benefits? Tim Morgans Seeds Falsified? #239: Life after liberalism? THE CESSATION OF GROWTH CHANGES EVERYTHING
Posted on September 13, 2022
“Money”, by Philip Larkin
Quarterly, is it, money reproaches me:
‘Why do you let me lie here wastefully?
I am all you never had of goods and sex.
You could get them still by writing a few cheques.’
So I look at others, what they do with theirs:
They certainly don’t keep it upstairs.
By now they’ve a second house and car and wife:
Clearly money has something to do with life
—In fact, they’ve a lot in common, if you enquire:
You can’t put off being young until you retire,
And however you bank your screw, the money you save
Won’t in the end buy you more than a shave.
I listen to money singing. It’s like looking down
From long french windows at a provincial town,
The slums, the canal, the churches ornate and mad
In the evening sun. It is intensely sad.
When the Blind insists on leading the Blind. @wolfofwolfst Why Wolf Richter is so wrong! #EnergyEconomics #theDebtMoneyAxiom #IABATO #PDC #GrubStreetJournal #ConquestofDough @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @wiki_ballot
Author:rogerglewis Published Date:October 21, 2019
The essential point missed here is that they are not burning cash, they are burning misallocated and mispriced Debt/Credit. The assymetry and lack of skin in the game this engenders for the HedgeFund/MerchantBank sock puppets should be evident to those who engage their grey cells and critical thinking skills.
´´A Bill in the Hand is worth 99 in the bank''. Apples Cash Mountain is it real. ( Theres more than one bite out of the Apple stash?) https://t.co/i38kPAsXVI via @PMotels
— GrubStreetJournal (@GrubStreetJorno) October 21, 2019
Bricks Without Straw. Pharoh Merkel https://t.co/i7Hqi1NDEY via @PMotels
— GrubStreetJournal (@GrubStreetJorno) October 21, 2019
So How much Skin do the Troika have in the Game. https://t.co/kDc8XE0CDq via @PMotels
— GrubStreetJournal (@GrubStreetJorno) October 21, 2019
https://web.archive.org/web/20220124071108/https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/
”The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable basis for the accounting system which in turn, along with the codification of commercial law and financial regulation are the basis for economic evaluation and the measurement of trust and fiduciary responsibility among the economic agents. A central feature of a control mechanism is that it is designed to influence process. Dynamics is its natural domain. Equilibrium is not the prime concern, the ability to control the direction of motion is what counts.
Money and financial institutions provide the command and control system of a modern society. The study of the mechanism, how they are formed, how they are controlled and manipulated and how their influence is measured in terms of social, political, and economic purpose pose questions, not in pure economics, not even in a narrow political economy, but in the broad compass of a political economy set in the context of society. ” Martin Shubick,
3 Acres and A Cow, Milking the USA, who ate all the pies?
Author:rogerglewis Published Date:August 2, 2018 6 Commentson 3 Acres and A Cow, Milking the USA, who ate all the pies?
That Link to Dr Paul Craig Roberts Article, From “The Dr Paul Craig Roberts” who served in the Reagan Administration.
Going back to an earlier analogy about the map not being the territory, I see this Article as a Map of Political Economy in the USA and By Extention a blueprint upon which the nation states which form The Washington Consensus, base their own political economy. ( The PetroDollar is Massively significant in compounding mistakes in our present Navigational Bearing)
Of Course, Energy is a Fundamental *First Cause* if you will in the economy but if one looks to Motivations and the end causes by which we can come to find a sensible course.
“This is most obvious in the animals other than man: they make things neither by art nor after inquiry or deliberation. That is why people wonder whether it is by intelligence or by some other faculty that these creatures work, – spiders, ants, and the like… It is absurd to suppose that purpose is not present because we do not observe the agent deliberating. Art does not deliberate. If the ship-building art were in the wood, it would produce the same results by nature. If therefore, purpose is present in art, it is present also in nature.[20]”
What after all is seeds? what indeed is the Value of One Dollar or One MToe of Oil or 1000 Kwh of Electricity.
After all of the Measurement and Analysis is done and we have our Cold Hard figures what do we do with them what are we aiming for.
Ezra Pound wrote his ABC of Economics in 1932/33, it is a quick short read and dispatches the dismal science efficiently without bluster https://archive.org/details/IA.TheABCOfEconomics.410240
The Penrtich Uprising marched to the Sloga, An End to the National Debt and a Larger Loaf of Bread, The Distributists ( Chesterton and Belloc ) Espoused 3 Acres and A Cow, The US Emancipation movement 40 acres and a Mule. Pounds Solution would seem very much in tune with Dr Craig Roberts, Half the Working Week and Pay a wage commensurate with a dignified happy life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributism
Banks
Distributism favours the dissolution of the current private bank system, or more specifically its profit-making basis in charging interest. Dorothy Day, for example, suggested [36] abolishing legal enforcement of interest-rate contracts (usury). It would not entail nationalization but could involve government involvement of some sort. Distributists look favourably on credit unions as a preferable alternative to banks.
“The world has enough for everyone’s need, but not enough for everyone’s greed.”
― Mahatma Gandhi
Martin Shubick,
”The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable basis for the accounting system which in turn, along with the codification of commercial law and financial regulation are the basis for economic evaluation and the measurement of trust and fiduciary responsibility among the economic agents. A central feature of a control mechanism is that it is designed to influence process. Dynamics is its natural domain. Equilibrium is not the prime concern, the ability to control the direction of motion is what counts.
Money and financial institutions provide the command and control system of a modern society. The study of the mechanism, how they are formed, how they are controlled and manipulated and how their influence is measured in terms of social, political, and economic purpose pose questions, not in pure economics, not even in a narrow political economy, but in the broad compass of a political economy set in the context of society. ”
Martin Shubik
What I am trying to get across is even where we base our analysis in terms of the energy conversion potential of the economy, which I believe is a positive Story where there is room for ‘Miserable Optimism’, The Miserable element provoked by the future prospect of confronting Twain’s aphorism, ‘ It is much easier to con a man than to convince him he has been conned after the event’
rogerglewison October 19, 2019 at 7:40 am said:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
“Roger, you have posted numerous comments linking to the same site, presumably your own. If you’ll refrain from doing that for a period, that would be helpful.”
Hi Tim, I have also been studying the monetary system and particularly Energy Economics for quite a long time, Soddy’s Work and also the Work of Technocracy back in the 1930’s was alive to the point. As such when I link to my own Blog it is to the full extent of the references I have made to those questions.
The Internet is about Links, Hyper text Transfer Protocol .(HTTP) and ( “URL’s )(Uniform Resource Locator’s) is a way of addressing Meta data and searching for needles in haystacks and for attribution.
I also make video and link to those, Search engine optimisation is very much driven by link backs and cross-references and my linking as well as providing source material is designed to bring traffic back to this Blog.Strawmanning of argumentation is a ubiquitous feature of the internet as is forum sliding and de-platforming both subtle covert and overt. All these things are relevant to Media outlets that challenge established Narratives.
Mark Carney’s recent sermons on Net Zero Carbon and punishment for those who refuse to buy into the narrative and the ( Carbon Credits) and Yannis Varafoukis’s recent Project Syndicate Article on The IBS adopting Libra the CryptoCurrency are all relevant to both the core subject of this Blog but also the context of the political economy and geopolitical context.
Stylized modelled theory and Empirical Evidence. Seeds of Proof.
rogerglewis March 4, 2022
Tim, You say and have said before many times that.
“All of these hopes miss the fundamental point, which is that ECoEs are very much higher now (above 9%) than they were in the 1970s (at or below 2%).”
Russian and Saudi Lifting costs account for a very large part of core world supply and also proved reserves for future supply, as the proved reserves are using enhanced recovery methods but not the more expensive heat-based recovery of non-conventional heavy oils. I think the simple claim that a substantial proportion of world oil production and continuing supply from those reserves are still at High ECOEs, can you prove otherwise?
Accessible data available in admittedly partial data sets, contradict the very stark claim you make that up to the 1990’s it cost 2 barrels of oil to extract 100 barrels giving a net 98 surplus energy barrels. and that now the energy cost is 9 barrels of every 100 giving 91 surplus barrels.
Adjusted lifting costs on a per-dollar basis have if anything fallen, it is also possible that for Giant fields that lifting costs have actually fallen in Energy terms.
Are your 2% and 9% figures theoretically or empirically derived and if empirically could you please provide the data source from which you derive such a bold claim?
It is also unsatisfactory not to provide adjusted figures for the different souces be they, conventional Land, off shore, deep sea and shallow and deeper conventional sources.
At this point I think it is reasonable to put the End of cheap oil in energy terms theorists to proof.
This paper tackles the question in energy terms and not assumptions drawn from monetary/price assumptions.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/
Discussion
The net energy return ratios (NERs) examined in this study for global oilfields range from approximately 2:1 to 100:1, with a production-weighted mean of 33:1. These results are most sensitive to changes when the gas processing configuration is unknown (as discussed above) or where the properties of injected steam are unknown. The implications of these relative magnitudes of energy returns are robust to explored uncertainties. A resource with an small energy return ratio may face challenges in scaling output, will consume large amounts of energy for production, and likely cause large environmental and climate impacts per unit of energy produced. This range of observed NER ratios is within the range suggested in prior literature. This agreement is a sign of convergence between methodologies: while the method used here is much more specific than prior methods, in that it models the engineering processes in oil extraction in greater detail, it provides similar order of magnitude results as methods used elsewhere.
Here is another comprehensive report
Click to access 60999-EROI_of_Global_Energy_Resources.pdf
What I am getting at is that at best you are in making the claims you do for ECOE that they are Stylised and such not fit for policy prescriptions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_oil_and_gas_fields
Giant field production properties and behavior
Comprehensive analysis of the production from the majority of the world’s giant oil fields has shown their enormous importance for global oil production.[10] For instance, the 20 largest oil fields in the world alone account for roughly 25% of the total oil production.
Further analysis shows that giant oil fields typically reach their maximum production before 50% of the ultimate recoverable volume has been extracted.[11] A strong correlation between depletion and the rate of decline was also found in that study, indicating that much new technology has only been able to temporarily decrease depletion at the expense of rapid future decline. This is exactly the case in the Cantarell Field.
EROEI and ECOE The theory and Maurice Adelman the Empirical Evidence.SEEDS of Doubt, Do the facts don’t fit the theory?
Author:rogerglewis Published Date:February 23, 2022
.
Understanding the cost implications of this transition into
an era beyond easy oil is paramount for forecasting future supply, and by extension, also of price.
The importance of reaching a better understanding of the cost fundamentals contrasts sharply with
the scarcity of empirical work in this area. The main reason for this knowledge gap is the paucity of
publicly available disaggregated2, non-proprietary3 cost data. While the theoretical literature has
made significant advances since Hotelling’s path-breaking study of 1931 on the economics of exhaustible resources
The periodic price wars which break the monotony of gasoline
prices on the American Pacific Coast are an interesting phenome-
non. Along most of the fifteen-hundred-mile strip west of the
summits of the Sierras a few large companies dominate the oil
business. In the southern California oil fields, however, numer-
ous small concerns sell gasoline at cut prices. Cheap gasoline is
for the most part not distilled from oil but is filtered from natural
gas, and may be of slightly inferior quality; nevertheless, it is an
acceptable motor fuel. The extreme mobility of purchasers of
gasoline reduces to a minimum the element of gradualness in the
shift of demand from seller to seller with change of price. Ordi-
narily, the price outside of southern California is held steady by
agreement among the five or six major companies, being fixed
in each of several large areas according to distance from the oil
fields. But every year or two a price war occurs, in which prices
go down day by day to extremely low levels, sometimes almost to
the point of giving away gasoline, and certainly below the cost of
distribution. From a normal price of 20 to 23 cents a gallon the
price sometimes drops to 6 or 7 cents, including the tax of 3 cents.
Peace is made and the old high price restored after a few weeks of
universal joy-riding and storage in every available container,
even in bath tubs. The interesting thing is the slowness of the
spread of these contests, which usually begin in southern Cali-
fornia. The companies fight each other violently there, and a few
weeks later in northern California, while in some cases maintain-
ing full prices in Oregon and Washington. These affrays give an
example of the instability of competition when variations of price
with location as well as time complicate commerce in an exhaus-
tible asset.
HAROLD HOTELLING
Market socialism and Georgism
As an extension of his research in spatial economics, Hotelling realized that it would be possible and socially optimal to finance investment in public goods through a Georgist land value tax and then provide such goods and services to the public at marginal cost (in many cases for free). This is an early expression of the Henry George theorem that Joseph Stiglitz and others expanded upon. Hotelling pointed out that when local public goods like roads and trains become congested, users create an additional marginal cost of excluding others. Hotelling became an early advocate of Georgist congestion pricing and stated that the purpose of this unique type of toll fee was in no way to recoup investment costs, but was instead a way of changing behavior and compensating those who are excluded. Hotelling describes how human attention is also in limited supply at any given time and place, which produces a rental value; he concludes that billboards could be regulated or taxed on similar grounds as other scarcity rents. Hotelling reasoned that rent and taxation were analogous, the public and private versions of a similar thing. Therefore, the social optimum would be to put taxes directly on rent.[6] Kenneth Arrow described this as market socialism, but Mason Gaffney points out that it is actually Georgism.[7] Hotelling added the following comment about the ethics of Georgist value capture: “The proposition that there is no ethical objection to the confiscation of the site value of land by taxation, if and when the nonlandowning classes can get the power to do so, has been ably defended by [the Georgist] H. G. Brown.”[6]
Producers with increasing returns to scale: marginal cost pricing
In “oligopolies” (markets dominated by a few producers), especially in “monopolies” (markets dominated by one producer), non-convexities remain important.[15] Concerns with large producers exploiting market power initiated the literature on non-convex sets, when Piero Sraffa wrote about firms with increasing returns to scale in 1926,[16] after which Hotelling wrote about marginal cost pricing in 1938.[17] Both Sraffa and Hotelling illuminated the market power of producers without competitors, clearly stimulating a literature on the supply-side of the economy.[18]
Despite the number of factors involved, technology is
viewed as being the main contributing factor behind the
improvements in oil production from major reservoirs.
Further significant advances in upstream technology
may be achieved in the longer term (Figure 6). How
rapidly these are achieved will depend to a large degree
on the level and success of R&D activity. But there are
signs that both government and corporate (oil company
and contractor/service company) spending on upstream
oil and gas R&D has fallen over the past decade, which
could slow the pace of technology-driven cost
reductions to some degree.9Although further cost reductions are to be expected, the
rate of decline in supply costs may slow over the next
decade or so as the scope for technological advances
and productivity gains are exhausted. Nevertheless,
innovative technology may continue to open up new
opportunities for exploiting resources that current
technologies do not permit.
Dr. Adelman contributed to a debate that has raged almost since Edwin Drake discovered oil in Pennsylvania in 1859. Geologists and others have long insisted that oil is running out, but economists have countered that oil will continue to be found as long as extraction technology advances and the price is sufficient.
Dr. Adelman used the Kern River field in the San Joaquin Valley of California to prove the economists’ point. In 1942, he said, the United States Geological Survey estimated that the field had 54 million barrels of reserves. In 1986, the agency raised its estimate to 970 million barrels, based on what could be recovered by modern technology. (The oil had been there all along but had been unrecoverable at prevailing prices and technology.) Between 1942 and 1986, the field produced 736 million barrels as increasingly better technology made it possible to squeeze more oil from the ground.
His point was that reserve estimates are based on current technology and prices, not just underlying geology. The original geologists were not incompetent, he said, rather, the technology to extract oil vastly improved.
“When will the world’s supply of oil be exhausted?” Dr. Adelman asked. “The basic answer is never.” His point has been proved many times in oil industry history, most recently by widespread use of new drilling techniques that include hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to force more oil from the earth. The federal government estimated that domestic crude oil production this year will average 9.24 million barrels a day, the highest since 1972. As a result of increasing production, oil imports last year fell to 36 percent of United States’ consumption from 60 percent in 2006.
This increased production — and the knowledge gained from it — pushed estimates of domestic crude reserves recoverable at current prices and technology to more than 33.4 billion barrels for the first time since 1976. The increase in natural gas reserves has been even greater: They rose to 2.3 trillion cubic feet in 2013 from 1.3 trillion cubic feet in 2000.
THE STARTING POINT
The economics of mineral scarcity were summed up in the 1952 report of the
Paley Commission (1). One member was my great teacher, Edward Mason of
Harvard (2). As Boswell said of Johnson:
His superiority over other learned men consisted chiefly in … a certain continual power
of seizing the useful substance of all that he knew, and exhibiting it in a clear and forcible
manner; so that knowledge, which we often see to be no better than lumber in men of dull
understanding, was, in him, true, evident and actual wisdom.
As Mason might have said about mineral scarcity: Forget about running out
of anything. What counts is the cost of new supply. To know this cost, follow
the price, generated not in The Market, but in a particular market. The price in
the market may reflect not only supply and demand, but also control by one or
a few sellers, who can act together to offer less and charge more. So detecting and allowing for market control is high on the agenda for understanding
price.
ABSTRACT
The crude oil and natural gas markets have a long colorful history. To understand
them, one needs some economic theory. The dominant view, of a fixed mineral stock, implies that a unit produced today means one less in the future. As
mankind approaches the limit, it must exert ever more effort per unit recovered.
This concept is false, whether stated as common sense or as elegant theory. Under competition, the price results from endless struggle between depletion and
increasing knowledge. But sellers may try to control the market in order to offer
less and charge more. The political results may feed back upon market behavior.
These factors—depletion, knowledge, monopoly, and politics—must be analyzed
separately before being put together to capture a slice of a changing history
The other side of the story
No one should say that analyzing all of these variables is easy, it is always a temptation to blank out the conclusions and opinions of other people with who we might disagree or even just dis-like. Availability of Energy is extremely important piecing together the opaque picture is clearly in the interests of all even those seemingly most interested and closest to immediate implications of conclusions reached and acted upon.
Control The Debt Control the Conflict, The International. When the crisis hits the fan.
rogerglewis March 4, 2022
“Under competition, the price results from endless struggle between depletion andincreasing knowledge. But sellers may try to control the market in order to offerless and charge more. The political results may feed back upon market behavior.These factors—depletion, knowledge, monopoly, and politics—must be analyzedseparately before being put together to capture a slice of a changing history.”M. A. Adelman
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Date Written: November 1997
A very big question is the differential accumulation of and implementation of geopolitical power over time.
There are questions of Access to energy feedstocks that are not determined by the availability of energy resources and arguments deployed to restrict access fall into various further categories with different worldview justifications. Such as; Peak oil, Overshoot, human rights, and a whole host of ideological positions.
This is a very good Peak Oil paper available on the UK government web site.
Published in August 2009 the report can be checked against its conclusions and a progress report concluded.
Adelman’s insights into the valuation of proven reserves based upon market transactions are interesting, Of course, BP disinvesting its Russian Holdings presents a useful vignette of the political dimensions, the Oligarchical and Monopoly dimensions of the energy business.
This scene form the International is about controlling debt and controlling conflict referring to Arms , it applies equally well to access to energy.
Climate change is commonly referred to as an “emergency”, a “crisis”, and an “existential threat.” The horrific unfolding of the Russian invasion of Ukraine should remind the climate alarmists of what an actual emergency, crisis and existential threat actually looks like:
Tim, You say and have said before many times that.
“All of these hopes miss the fundamental point, which is that ECoEs are very much higher now (above 9%) than they were in the 1970s (at or below 2%).”Russian and Saudi Lifting costs account for a very large part of core world supply and also proved reserves for future supply, as the proved reserves are using enhanced recovery methods but not the more expensive heat-based recovery of non-conventional heavy oils. I think the simple claim that a substantial proportion of world oil production and continuing supply from those reserves are still at High ECOEs, can you prove otherwise?
Accessible data available in admittedly partial data sets, contradict the very stark claim you make that up to the 1990’s it cost 2 barrels of oil to extract 100 barrels giving a net 98 surplus energy barrels. and that now the energy cost is 9 barrels of every 100 giving 91 surplus barrels.
Adjusted lifting costs on a per-dollar basis have if anything fallen, it is also possible that for Giant fields that lifting costs have actually fallen in Energy terms.
Are your 2% and 9% figures theoretically or empirically derived and if empirically could you please provide the data source from which you derive such a bold claim?
It is also unsatisfactory not to provide adjusted figures for the different souces be they, conventional Land, off shore, deep sea and shallow and deeper conventional sources.
At this point I think it is reasonable to put the End of cheap oil in energy terms theorists to proof.
This paper tackles the question in energy terms and not assumptions drawn from monetary/price assumptions.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/rogerglewis
on March 5, 2022 at 2:36 pm said:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
I agree , hard data is difficult to come by in many cases I think the actual information is protected as State Secrets, and certainly where private interests are concerned as highly sensitive with respect to market competitors.
All that said there is data and whilst it should be questioned and analysed, my simple question to Tim is why has he an average ECOE of 1 in 9 out and the Brandt paper from 2015 has a figure of 1 in and 33 out as its average?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Field
Matthew Simmons, in his 2005 book Twilight in the Desert, suggested that production from the Ghawar field and Saudi Arabia may soon peak.[19]When appraised in the 1970s, the field was assessed to have 170 billion barrels (27 km3) of original oil in place (OOIP), with about 60 billion barrels (9.5 km3) recoverable (1975 Aramco estimate quoted by Matt Simmons). The second figure, at least, was understated, since that production figure has already been exceeded.[19]
v.
Some sources claim that Ghawar peaked in 2005, though this is denied by the field operators.[8][9]
If you look at fig 2 in the Brandt paper there is enough information to compare the seeds ECOE , assumptions/Data against?
some of the figures suggest that modern deep water rigs produce very competitive ECOE, Girasol in Angola Hibernian in Canada for instance both of which are operated by Oil Majors, is that perhaps a clue regarding who has proprietary technology not available perhaps to say Russia? I really do recommend people look at fig 2 if nothing else.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/rogerglewis
on March 5, 2022 at 1:54 pm said:
Hi Joe,
I am asking for empirical evidence and not proxies for ECOE , EROI is a financial proxy the first study I cited is based on actual lifting costs it suggests that the average actual Energy cost is 1 barrel now to get 33 barrels, a hard number publishes in 2015. Tim is saying that it is 1 barrel gets 9 barrels on average as of now, is this a stylized theoretical claim or empirically based as the Brandt paper is or based upon a differently constituted sampling group?.
The second publication is from 2013 and is based upon EROI measures I must say I think it is more logically consistent and also more empirically robust to consider Mega Joules rather than Dollar ammounts.the Super Giants will be less than either Tims ECOE average or the brandt paper average I linked to. That the depletion rates of Giant fields have been speculated upon since Hotelling was writing in the 1930’s is a fact I was interested to note that the Brea Olinda field still has the highest ECOE at over 100 and that although it dates from the 1880’s recently consolidation of and sale of wells has been taking place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brea-Olinda_Oil_Field
Peak production on the field was in 1953
Unocal operated most of the field until March 1996, at which time it sold off all of its California assets to Nuevo Energy.[14] Nuevo operated the field for seven years, finally selling its portion of the field in 2003 for $59 million to BlackSand Partners, L.P., prior to themselves being acquired by Plains Exploration & Production.[15] At that time the field was producing 2,269 barrels per day. BlackSand ran operations on the field for a little over three years, and in 2006 Linn Energy bought it from BlackSand for $291 million.[16] In February 2007 Aera Energy LLC transferred its 654 wells on the field to Linn Energy, leaving Linn as the largest operator on the field.[from fig 2 of Brandt, you will see that Ghwar is given a return of between 35-40 barrels for each barrel expended for lifting costs.
This sort of breakdown of detail is very important when considering realistic policies for the pace and priorities of implementing degrowth policies, or perhaps steady-state policies if one defines the problem slightly more optimistically as I do personally.Hideawayon March 5, 2022 at 3:44 pm said:
@RogerLewis, as per always, lies, dammed lies and statistics, can say whatever you want them to say if you leave out enough ‘parts’ of the system. The following is from the document you linked ….
“This model does not currently include energy invested in building oilfield capital equipment (e.g., drilling rigs), nor does it include other indirect energy uses such as labor or services.”
“The inclusion of embodied energy in steel and cement consumed would reduce these ERRs by an unknown amount”Considering the examples are the giants/super giants of the oil industry, which are in decline as a percentage of the total, and smaller fields would have much higher ’embodied energy’ content per produced barrel, then the concept of declining EROEI is very very valid, and likewise the important part of Tim’s thesis, even if the exact number can be debated. It matters not the exact number, just the trajectory, which is clearly demonstrated with things like fracking of shale wells and digging of tar sands.
A common theme from those looking at a utopian future of clean tech is leaving out a lot of very important aspects of the real world to prove their case. For example, and this applies to modern oil fields as much as every other form of new energy, is that the new ‘stuff’ (embodied energy) is always more energy expensive than the existing as the metals used come from mines with lower grades (on average) than those of the past, that take more energy to produce. On average the mines are more remote, with lower grade, deeper and a higher ‘hardness index’ than old mines, because we used all the easy to get high grade metals first!!
Because we are dealing with a huge complex system, going into details would require volumes running into thousands of pages of specifics, where the overall message would get buried in arguments over the detail.
rogerglewis
on March 5, 2022 at 5:08 pm said:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Hi Hideaway,
My simple question is where is the empirical data to prove a ECOE of 1 to 9 over the 1 to 33 in the Brandt Paper.
I do not think that Brandt has a dog in the fight to claim lower than 1 to nine or indeed worse.
Your pointing out that embodied energy was not included the calculation, a point which is very clear in the paper’s commentary, will not hugely affect the 1 to 33 ratio not by a factor of 3 in any event.
At another level it is also clear that for the giant fields it would seem that the fixed sunk costs are spread over a longer period of time although it would also seem that Deepwater rigs are also moveable as of course are exploration rigs, there are clearly economies of scale of production that impact on ECOE in some cases and importantly in large fields which are a significant component of core supply, A reading of Stephen J Gould the Median is not the message is recommended in considering weighted sampling.Rationing Carbon, Carbon Currency end game. Why the Overshootist Elitist like Attenborough want fuel poverty.
rogerglewis February 8, 2022
An excellent show and a great narrative context.
LibDem Councillors go independent after LibDem group tries to take control of local ward funds as its own – Cllr Hopkins: ‘Virtually NOTHING is allowed to happen in Bristol unless it goes through the mayor’s office’ – NM Rothschilds and Sons were the merchant bankers who pushed sell-off of British Gas, BP etc. – Alison Levitt QC concluded at least three prosecutions against Savile would have been possible and blasted the CPS for deleting all records of the Jimmy Savile paedophile cases from its systems in 2010 – – Spanish Secret Services say they were behind the Catalonia ‘Islamist’ terror attacks in 2017 – Black people vaccine hesitant because whites spent decades experimenting on Africans? – Katharine Gun XIV: NHS-Digital, NHS-X and How They Intend To Enslave Us – NOT The BCfm Politics Show presented by Tony Gosling
JASPER TOMLINSON EXPLAINS UK MOLTEN SALT NUCLEAR REACTORS, DIALECT BRISTOL FM 30 NOV 2016, RIP 202141 The Environment | June 2015
patron of Population Matters,
emphasising the difficulties of addressing
environmental problems in a world with
ever more people. Sir David and I are
both from about the same generation. He
was good enough in a brief exchange of
letters in 2011 to share his thoughts with
me on the way forward in addressing
global population growth. His letter was
in reply to a suggestion from me that
improved global access to abundant,
sustainable, affordable energy is a
necessary part of the way forward.
However, even if practical, Sir David
suspected that rather than address the
problem, it might do quite the reverse,
encouraging human beings to think thatJASPER TOMLINSON EXPLAINS UK MOLTEN SALT NUCLEAR REACTORS, DIALECT BRISTOL FM 30 NOV 2016, RIP 2021
I think this Bitchute video JASPER TOMLINSON EXPLAINS UK MOLTEN SALT NUCLEAR REACTORS, DIALECT BRISTOL FM 30 NOV 2016, RIP 2021. Appearing today in the Tony Gosling bitchute feed fits also into this, the NHS segment is very important and the DIgital ID 2022 project of Gates also ties in with the Carbon basis of the touted Central Bank digital currency.
The new aphorism of world governance will not be who has the gold makes the rules but they who have the Carbon credits makes the rules.The Six Ways on Sunday, Carbon Currency end game 16 to 1 on, what are the odds of that
THE SIX WAYS ON SUNDAY, CARBON CURRENCY END GAME 16 TO 1 ON, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT?. R&R DISCUS
·THE SIX WAYS ON SUNDAY, CARBON CURRENCY END GAME 16 TO 1 ON, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT?. R &R DISCUSS.
The average 100,000-square-foot office building in the U.S. uses approximately 2 million kWh of electricity per year, or 20 kWh per square foot of space. For my mother, a kilowatt hour is a unit of currency. She knows that, until October 31 when the rates change, one kWh of electricity used in off-peak hours costs her 8.7 cents. Mid-peak usage costs her 13.2 cents per kWh, and on-peak use costs her 18 cents per kWh.
Quick service (“fast food”) restaurants in the U.S. are real energy hogs, burning through an average of 81 kWh of electricity per square foot every year. But my mother is an anomaly. Many consumers aren’t as conscious of their use, or the price of that usage. So, let’s put the kWh into perspective.U.S. grocery stores require a massive amount of electricity, as well, with 66 percent of the average 52.5 kWh used annually going to feed lighting and refrigeration alone. In the average home, one kWh of electricity means the ability to:
watch 10 hours of television,
wash 12 pounds of laundry,
cook a hot breakfast for 4 people,
listen to 20 hours of radio, or
use the computer for 5 to 10 hours.
According to The World Factbook, the United States alone–and it’s the second-largest consumer of electricity in the world, behind China–consumes 3.832 trillion kWh of electricity annually. To break that down, imagine cooking breakfast for 15.3 trillion friends (or roughly 2,000 times the world’s population), or doing 46 trillion pounds of laundry. That’s how much electricity the United States consumes in a year.per kWh.
But my mother is an anomaly. Many consumers aren’t as conscious of their use, or the price of that usage. So, let’s put the kWh into perspective.
My Model spreadsheet of the world economy in KWH equivalents from Circa 2018.
rogerglewis August 9, 2022
https://longhairedmusings.wordpress.com/2019/06/06/in-quest-of-national-idea-energy-ruble-bound-to-be-the-hardest-currency-victor-efimov-newspaper-chas-pik-may-6-2004/https://web.archive.org/web/20071021064428/http://dotu.ru/files/20040506_In_Quest_of_National_Idea.pdfhttps://longhairedmusings.wordpress.com/2019/06/06/in-quest-of-national-idea-energy-ruble-bound-to-be-the-hardest-currency-victor-efimov-newspaper-chas-pik-may-6-2004/
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In Quest of National Idea: “Energy Ruble” Bound To Be the Hardest Currency. Victor Efimov newspaper “Chas pik”, May 6, 2004
rogerglewis June 6, 2019 11 Comments
None of the manuals on Economics puts the question of how a state gets wealthy; they focus on the art
of getting rich within a single corporation, a single bank, or give a piece of advice to individual wealth.
Nevertheless, in real life, the corporate effect proves to be achieved at the expense of some damage
done to the state and society.
The country has everything it takes to reach the goals set by the President in his address,
namely, the acceleration of economic growth and the external convertibility of the ruble. The country
possesses quite sufficient sources of energy, a surplus resource potential, a qualified workforce, and
our home demand is stable. However, we have never made proper use of our opportunities on account
of some glaring faults of methodological character. The commodity-and-monetary control needs the
accommodation of interests of both financial and industrial sectors, state interests, and the interests of
the global financial and commodity markets.
The nation’s financial system functionally resembles the haemal system of the human body.
It Don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that Swing . Tides of the Petrodollar Moon.
rogerglewis December 12, 2021
Tides of the Dollar Moon
A planet to its Star must look
The planet no less needs its moon.
As the Sun is the store of energy, New.
The moon drives and regulates currents,
of the tides, time and the nature of things.
That Golden Orb gives all
That silvery Moon regulates all
Both work together even as the other
Seemingly sleeps and yet currents
of the tides, Time and the nature of things pass.
On the nature of Man-made things
On a standard of gold which
Jennings would not be crucified upon,
That cross Of Gold-alone hard food of Midas.
No tides to complement the Orb
For Silver was its currency,
the Silvery moon to that crosses Golden Sun
which means of exchange fed the common man
The Silver Moon drives and regulates
Currencies of the tides, Time and the nature of things.
Time passed and Man forsakes the Golden Orb
and its silvery moon. No credit he gave
to drivers of Tides, Time and the nature of things
Fiat of imperial rule enforces debts,
new tides in political Economy.
FIAT dictates the new tides of Commerce.
Ephors of debt above and astride the law.
No silvery moon, complementary to the Golden Orb.
There are no tides by means of which the common man
may be fed. Hard food of Midas alone- Starvation.
King Kanute Like those ephors
wave bidding the advancing tide backwards
Still, they advance tides in a tsunami of debt
Tides of a Dollar moon by fiat
Hegemonic Tides of the Dollar Moon.Roger Lewis.
Bi-oilism.Petro/CarbonDollar Standard
Plateau Oil. A variation on the idea of peak oil. AT Plateaux production no swing capacity in Oil Supply is similar to demonetizing Silver giving a defacto PetroDollar Standard which is inherently deflationary.
QED,
Welcome to the new Oil Shock.
“the material economy of energy has ceased growing, the proxy economy of money has carried on expanding.”As usual, Tim is a totally evidence-free zone in the church of seeds.”the material economy of energy has ceased growing, the proxy economy of money has carried on expanding.”
I refute it thus.
Still about oil? 49 Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan NitzanDr Tim Morgan is at it again with his stylized facts and his grand theoretical truth claims which simply fail to stand up to the empirical evidence.https://archive.org/details/controlofoil00blai_0
Here’s a book for Tim to read.
February 20, 2020
#Wasssupppp Putting it all together, Energy, Debt, War, Sanctions, Elitism, Money Money Money. #Trump #Hall #EROI #EmboddiedEnergy #CircularEconomy
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/01/24/163-tales-from-mount-incomprehension/
drtimmorganon February 20, 2020 at 7:04 am
The Catholic veto upon usury, as defined in dogmatic councils, cuts across all classes. But it is absolutely necessary to the capitalist to distinguish more delicately between two kinds of usury; the kind he finds useful and the kind he does not find useful. The religion of the Servile State must have no dogmas or definitions. It cannot afford to have any definitions. For definitions are very dreadful things: they do the two things that most men, especially comfortable men, cannot endure. They fight; and they fight fair.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/63108553/there-is-no-climate-emergency
January 18, 2019Lars SyllLeave a commentGo to comments
from Lars Syll
Alex Rosenberg — chair of the philosophy department at Duke University and renowned economic methodologist — has an interesting article on What’s Wrong with Paul Krugman’s Philosophy of Economics in 3:AM Magazine. Writes Rosenberg:
Krugman writes: “So how do you do useful economics? In general, what we really do is combine maximization-and-equilibrium as a first cut with a variety of ad hoc modifications reflecting what seem to be empirical regularities about how both individual behavior and markets depart from this idealized case.”
But if you ask the New Classical economists, they’ll say, this is exactly what we do—combine maximizing-and-equilibrium with empirical regularities
This is a great article. I recall the comment on your article on Romers Nobel and so forth
https://rwer.wordpress.com/2018/10/11/at-last-paul-romer-got-his-nobel-prize%E2%80%8B/
I linked to that article on my Linken in profile as I will with this article.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/worthy-nobel-prize-economics-paul-romer-roger-lewis/
The issue with static models is that they are static and we need to recognise complex flows and the vector of the system not snapshots of a System which is never stationary or in equilibrium.
Claes Johnson has done work on Turbulent Air flow using finite element analysis The point he makes regarding Well posed and ill posed
http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/search?q=well+posed
Dx(t)=limΔt→0x(t+Δt)−x(t)Δt
and a small perturbation in x(t+Δt) or x(t) gets divided by the quantity Δt tending to zero and thus gets amplified by the large factor 1/Δt. The standard approach to the Fundamental Theorem puts the emphasis on the ill-posed or unstable process of differentiation.
All of that and no 2nd law of thermodynamics.
Intrigued go here.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jlcoMGZWSXVwGuStQgHfhZ1CDy84zyWX/view?usp=sharing
The latest blog from Tim Morgan on the SEEDS blog is premised upon the inevitability of contraction and the clear, by Tims lights, misunderstanding of “Previous reversals” by mainstream economists. The world economy is inevitably headed to a terminal state of “involuntary de-growth. Further, inevitability should again be submitted to, such as the most obvious areas requiring innovations are business and government. Although we are promised the possibility of further analysis vis Government, Household and Financial sectors. Again and Again, readers and believers of the SEEDS creed should submit to “”the “OBVIOUS” STARTING POINT FOR TRUE BELIEVERS SHOULD BE “PRIVATE NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATES (PNFC) Having studied SEEDS seriously for several years now it seems “Obvious ” to this non-believing heretic that Energy Scarcity as an inevitability is a patsy for Austerity. And that the ignored Financial system and the predication of its monetary system upon short term scarcities as a state of inevitable permanence, is what is preached from the Seeds Pulpit. Seeds are embued with the magical “Prosperity” elixir which we are assured is declining inevitably and that due to “Market forces” then, decomplexification(sic) through consolidation is necessary. We learn that even the essential sectors of the economy will not be left unpunished by the “invisible hand of prosperities reversal from beneficence to malignant catastrophe”. We are told “it would be wholly irrational to expect financial stimulus to restore the “energy abundance” of the past, and further that Technolgy as a possible solution to any of the wicked curses reigning down from the Gods of the invisible hand Is one of the Great delusions of the Age. And there endeth the first hymn to millenarian destiny.A TRILOGY IN FOUR PARTS. USURY HELL´S FUEL MANS OPPRESSOR BOURGOISE RESOLUTION AND GLOBALISATION UN ENTANGLED.
https://theconquestofdough.weebly.com/
“Three modes of evolution have thus been brought before us: evolution by fortuitous variation, evolution by mechanical necessity, and evolution by creative love. We may term them tychastic evolution, or tychasm, anancastic evolution, or anancasm, and agapastic evolution, or agapasm. The doctrines which represent these as severally of principal importance we may term tychasticism, anancasticism,and agapasticism. On the other hand the mere propositions that absolute chance, mechanical necessity, and the law of love are severally operative in the cosmos may receive the names of tychism, anancism, and agapism.” — C. S. Peirce,
The most profound thing I think I have ever read is a short question posed in Neal Donald Walsh’s, Conversations with God. ´´What would love do now?´´.
At all breaking points in life there is one question to ask: what would love do now?
Love is not to retain the best of the other – but the best of your self.
Two dogmas of empiricism.
CHARLES SANDERS PEIRCE: ´´In order toreason well …. it is absolutely necessary to possess … such virtuesas intellectual honesty and sincerity and a real love of truth (2.82). The cause [of the success of scientificinquirers] has been that the motive which has carried them to the laboratory and the field has been a craving toknow how things really were … (1-34).[Genuine inquiry consists I in diligent inquiry into truth for truth’s sake(1.44), … in actually drawing the bow upon truth withintentness in the eye, with energy in the arm (1.235). [When] it is no longer the reasoning which determineswhat the conclusion shall be, but … the conclusion which determines what the reasoning shall be … this is sham reasoning…. The effect of this shamming is that men come to look upon reasoning as mainly decorative…´´. http://web.ncf.ca/ag659/308/Peirce-Rorty-Haack.pdfPierces seminal essay How to make our ideas clear is also a great starting off point for embracing such truth as we might be fortunate enough to encounter in our allotted time on this blue marble suspended in eternity.http://www.peirce.org/writings/p119.html
Price A piece of information, or metric, often attributed with magical or potentially sinister influence. On the magical attribute of price, there are market prices. A textbook market price, say of an energy commodity, is supposed to simultaneously include all influential information on supply from multiple producers and demand from multiple consumers. In the real world a market price neglects many external costs related to common goods such as the environment, sharing of information among all actors, disproportionate influence of actors (e.g., due to size), and other facets that are necessary for a textbook free market to exist. Even though all of the conditions for a perfect market never exist, existing markets work very well for many purposes. On the neutral-to-sinister attribute of price, monopolies or cartels can set restrictions on the flow of commodities and specify prices to achieve various goals including the balance of supply and demand, the maximization of profit, geopolitical influence, and the elimination of competitors. The U.S. has been no stranger to these practices, with oil trade front and center. Oil extraction from the early 1930s East Texas oil boom was so prolific that the 1933 National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) specified state-level oil extraction quotas. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the NIRA, Texas senator Thomas Connally sponsored the Connally Hot Oil Act that became law in 1935.
( See the Authors 2010 paper).
This point should be considered in the light of the Us Secretary to the treasuries famous line when he famously told a group of European finance ministers worried about the export of American inflation that the dollar “is our currency, but your problem.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/our-currency-your-problem-the-us-has-made-a-weapon-of-the-dollar-20180907-p502d7.html
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/policymakers-can-learn-nixons-dollar-shock
I think the Author Should spend some time with Prof. Richard Werner’s Princes of the Yen and Disaggregated Theory of Credit, and move on to considering the Work of Wes Freeberg on “The Big Apple Plan”
Dr. Mackintosh’s book is a risible screed of cliche and Teenaged emo angst pseudo-intellectualism. The seriousness of the academic rigor is amply illustrated with quotes from Greta(fig 1)( No Climate facts then?) and Attenborough.(Fig 2)
The pessimistic predestined Calvinist would-be commissar gives Gem Bendell of Deep adaptation fame a serious run for his money in the inauthenticity of their “Clinton Thumb Sincerity”
“Well,” blurted Whitewash, “thank you for that small diversion Paddy, but let’s be clear about this: a lot of people have been injured and sometimes killed three times over by horse-pill quackery like Ivermectin, and…”
“That’s Sir Patrick if you don’t mind,” countered Bigbalance, “and I while know that – as an Alien – you already have the gift of Life Eternal, some of us here don’t, so I’ll thank you to pipe down because believe me, if the Reset comes in and I miss it thanks to Death, I shall be one very pissed off bunny”.
Satire & Slimeballs on a Saturday
This is an interesting article, What is Knowable, The Unknown Unknowns of Donald Rumsfeld Fame?
9/11 was a monetary Event, The missing Pentagon Billions and records kept in Building 7
This from Brendan O’Connel iii is worth watching.
Amazingly, no major outlet – Alt or MSM – has seen fit to link Donald Trump’s 911 comment with Bannon’s “end the fed” remarks a week later with the raid on Trump’s lair?
Event 201 was a monetary event. Ushering in the going direct Paradigm.
Obviously, the 2008/9 Global Financial Crisis was also a monetary event but clearly more obviously so.
#FtheWEF was trending on Twitter in the UK a couple of days ago.
#EndTheFed.
The Climate Crisis is also a monetary event, when the Carbon Based Central Bank currencies are in place the CLimate Crisis will go away, and various environmental crises will of course remain but it will be claimed that Austerity through Carbon rationing/Taxation has solved Global Warming.
Victor Efimov calls this the Egregor Matrix.
this or that this lie is always set out as lie number one and lie
19:46
number 2 and, accordingly, people are positioned to choose between them.
«And Jesus knew their thoughts, and said unto them, Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.» (Matthew, 12:25).
Did you hear the one about the Blind Straw-man leading the Blind Straw-men. A Utopia of Usurers . the plutocratic appeal to science, or, rather, to the pseudo-science that they call Seeds.
rogerglewis February 3, 2022
February 18, 2020